Conservation With A Conservative
A transcript at the door.
The Free Stater Who Hated George W. Bush
A Free Stater's account of how George Bush broke the constitution and the Ten Commandments.
Frank Caliendo: Socialist
What's his name again?
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tales From The Bottom Of The Ticket:The Home Stretch -- The First Block
Re-Tooling The Campaign Blog
Beginning to write the articles in blocks due to the campaign heating up and a request to build a state wide multi-partisan network to get in numbers from across the state quickly from all races on election night.
5,000 Hellos in 50 Days
Going at visibility through a quantitative rather than a qualitative lens.
Talking With Voters Over Coffee
Are taxes an issue? I talked with a voter at the DW Diner to find out.
Beginning to write the articles in blocks due to the campaign heating up and a request to build a state wide multi-partisan network to get in numbers from across the state quickly from all races on election night.
5,000 Hellos in 50 Days
Going at visibility through a quantitative rather than a qualitative lens.
Talking With Voters Over Coffee
Are taxes an issue? I talked with a voter at the DW Diner to find out.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
No, The Election Isn't Over Yet
There's a strange phenomenon going on right now in Merrimack.
Many people, especially the Republicans, are taking their lawn signs down.
This isn't just the people who have lost their primary and had to have taken them down by yesterday under RSA 664:17, strangely enough, some of those are still up.
In the end, the lawn sign purge made some people I talked to think that the election season was over, that the primary was in fact the election itself.
It's an interesting phenomenon to be sure. I cannot discount the saavy and work ethic of the Republicans for a second, but I don't think this will make a big impact.
However, if you know someone who voted in the primaries who thought that was the big enchilada, please tell them to vote on November 4th.
Post-Primary Day Stats
Now that the Primary is over, I figured it would be a good time to report stats so far.
To date, my campaign has identified 915 voters at 491 different homes. I was aiming for 1,000, but including the random contacts on the 4th of July as well as occasional knocks on doors without recognized registered voters, i've probably reached that goal.
In the fundraising department, i've hit my goal of $1,000, raising $1,007.85 from 35 different people, an average contribution of $28.79, 17 of those donations were $25 or under, and only one of them came from someone who did not live in New Hampshire, although since they have moved here.
However, that may change since I haven't asked anyone in my extended family for campaign contributions yet. If my aunts in New Jersey aren't a special interest i'm beholden to, i'll never hear the end of it at Christmas.
In terms of visibility, i'm up to 67 signs on lawns and businesses across town. My goal before election day is 100, which seems within reach.
Those lawns share space with signs from Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Kenney, John Lynch, Jeanne Shaheen, John Sununu, Carol Shea Porter, John Steven, Bill Boyd, Deb Pignatelli, Mike Kaelin, Jim O'Neil, Kim Kojak, Pete Hinkle, Peter Batula, Bob L'Hereaux and Dick Hinch.
It might seem strange to share critical campaign benchmarks like this in fear that my opponents will see that I have not reached my goals or it will give them something to gauge their own internal efforts by.
However, that's part of the beauty of being at the bottom of the ticket as well as the complexity of Merrimack politics.
Of my 15 combined opponents in both major parties, so far five of them have my sign on their lawn, including a Republican. I'd probably be able to get that sign on another three or four if it weren't for the fact that they live in Condos.
Each one of my opponents is a saavy campaigner and cannot be underestimated, but my biggest opponent is myself.
To date, my campaign has identified 915 voters at 491 different homes. I was aiming for 1,000, but including the random contacts on the 4th of July as well as occasional knocks on doors without recognized registered voters, i've probably reached that goal.
In the fundraising department, i've hit my goal of $1,000, raising $1,007.85 from 35 different people, an average contribution of $28.79, 17 of those donations were $25 or under, and only one of them came from someone who did not live in New Hampshire, although since they have moved here.
However, that may change since I haven't asked anyone in my extended family for campaign contributions yet. If my aunts in New Jersey aren't a special interest i'm beholden to, i'll never hear the end of it at Christmas.
In terms of visibility, i'm up to 67 signs on lawns and businesses across town. My goal before election day is 100, which seems within reach.
Those lawns share space with signs from Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Kenney, John Lynch, Jeanne Shaheen, John Sununu, Carol Shea Porter, John Steven, Bill Boyd, Deb Pignatelli, Mike Kaelin, Jim O'Neil, Kim Kojak, Pete Hinkle, Peter Batula, Bob L'Hereaux and Dick Hinch.
It might seem strange to share critical campaign benchmarks like this in fear that my opponents will see that I have not reached my goals or it will give them something to gauge their own internal efforts by.
However, that's part of the beauty of being at the bottom of the ticket as well as the complexity of Merrimack politics.
Of my 15 combined opponents in both major parties, so far five of them have my sign on their lawn, including a Republican. I'd probably be able to get that sign on another three or four if it weren't for the fact that they live in Condos.
Each one of my opponents is a saavy campaigner and cannot be underestimated, but my biggest opponent is myself.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
An Income Tax Replacing Property Tax
There was a woman I met while canvassing who had an interesting idea.
Institute an Income Tax, and anyone who owns property can send in a copy of their Income Tax payment and pay $0 for property taxes.
Would it work? Would property taxes stay at $0?
I don't want to see an Income Tax, but the bottom line isn't which tax is in place, but reducing the amount that people have to pay while making sure public services are still provided.
Institute an Income Tax, and anyone who owns property can send in a copy of their Income Tax payment and pay $0 for property taxes.
Would it work? Would property taxes stay at $0?
I don't want to see an Income Tax, but the bottom line isn't which tax is in place, but reducing the amount that people have to pay while making sure public services are still provided.
The Underemployed Veteran With No Healthcare
Hopefully this sad story will have a happy ending.
During one day's canvass, I knocked on the door of a man who was a former enlisted man in the Air Force.
He had served several decades ago, he didn't go into detail except for the fact that he had no healthcare coverage and he figured that hopefully the VA could get him something.
A few years ago, this wouldn't have mattered, but the job he had as an engineer was sent overseas to someone who could be paid far less. Even though he's in his early 60's, and not eligible for Medicare, he needed help with his prescription costs as well as saving up for retirement.
His desire was to be an engineer again, but even with A+ certification and other job training enhancements to his resume, he could not find a job in the area that paid nearly as much as before. He now works part time as a janitor in a local church.
His wife is a lifelong Republican but will be voting for Obama due to the plight of her husband.
Due to Carol Shea Porter's expertise with helping Veteran's, I recieved his permission to pass along his info to her congressional office. I had met a guy in a similiar situation from Manchester in 2007.
During one day's canvass, I knocked on the door of a man who was a former enlisted man in the Air Force.
He had served several decades ago, he didn't go into detail except for the fact that he had no healthcare coverage and he figured that hopefully the VA could get him something.
A few years ago, this wouldn't have mattered, but the job he had as an engineer was sent overseas to someone who could be paid far less. Even though he's in his early 60's, and not eligible for Medicare, he needed help with his prescription costs as well as saving up for retirement.
His desire was to be an engineer again, but even with A+ certification and other job training enhancements to his resume, he could not find a job in the area that paid nearly as much as before. He now works part time as a janitor in a local church.
His wife is a lifelong Republican but will be voting for Obama due to the plight of her husband.
Due to Carol Shea Porter's expertise with helping Veteran's, I recieved his permission to pass along his info to her congressional office. I had met a guy in a similiar situation from Manchester in 2007.
Repairing Windshields Are Easier Than Repairing Families
This story comes not from Merrimack, but from Manchester, although i've heard the story from others in Merrimack, and i'm sure it has been repeated elsewhere.
Me and my friend had just pulled into a parking lot when another guy pulled in next to us. He was going to a store within the strip mall next to the parking lot and saw my friend's battered windshield.
The other guy worked in window glass replacement, so intruded and mentioned his profession; offering a deal on replacing the windshield, my friend agreed and they began talking for several minutes. Eventually somehow the conversation went from windshields to politics.
For the windshield guy, his biggest issue was child custody rights. He told me and my friend that without any apparent reason, the courts gave full custody rights of his 8 month old son to his recently divorced wife. He had to wait another 8 months before even having a chance to see his son again, but he said again the courts did not hear any evidence before granting him no visitation rights to his son.
I did not ask the man's name. I did not know if he was lying or if there was domestic abuse of some kind or any number of other factors.
All I knew is that looking at that man's eyes, I could tell that he wanted to see his newborn son.
My friend's windshield is going to be fixed in a few days. If only the windshield repairman could be given the chance to fix his family so easily....
Me and my friend had just pulled into a parking lot when another guy pulled in next to us. He was going to a store within the strip mall next to the parking lot and saw my friend's battered windshield.
The other guy worked in window glass replacement, so intruded and mentioned his profession; offering a deal on replacing the windshield, my friend agreed and they began talking for several minutes. Eventually somehow the conversation went from windshields to politics.
For the windshield guy, his biggest issue was child custody rights. He told me and my friend that without any apparent reason, the courts gave full custody rights of his 8 month old son to his recently divorced wife. He had to wait another 8 months before even having a chance to see his son again, but he said again the courts did not hear any evidence before granting him no visitation rights to his son.
I did not ask the man's name. I did not know if he was lying or if there was domestic abuse of some kind or any number of other factors.
All I knew is that looking at that man's eyes, I could tell that he wanted to see his newborn son.
My friend's windshield is going to be fixed in a few days. If only the windshield repairman could be given the chance to fix his family so easily....
Democrats Lost Several Seats In The NH House In 2006 Due To Straight Ticket Votes
I've listened to some of my fellow candidates in Democratic safe districts complain about the lack of a straight ticket. I don't get what their problem is considering that the straight ticket made little to no difference to them, but has destroyed any chance for Democrats to win in Republican or swing districts in the past.
The partisan enclaves are still there even without the straight ticket, and candidates in those parties will still have an edge, but not an edge so great that people who don't work hard from the opposite parties won't have a chance.
This improves the race on both side, because perhaps the only thing worse than a candidate who doesn't think they can win is a politician who doesn't think they can lose.
Before 2006, we had no data to prove this, but thankfully the Secretary of State's office counted Straight Ticket ballots just in time for them to be rightfully removed, and those in the enclaves would not have seen their margins changed for the most part.
On the Democratic side, the Upper Valley wouldn't be touched. Grafton 9 (Hanover/Lyme), the safest State Rep District in the State for Democrats, had no Republicans run; and Grafton 11 (Lebanon Wards 1-3) would have seen the Democrats lose 863 votes, leaving a margin of 332 votes between the lowest vote getter among the Democrats and the highest vote getter among the Republicans.
In Keene, the same rings true. There still would have been seven Democrats taking the seven seats there, only with the margin of victory between 7th place and 8th place being 413 rather than 1656.
The same thing happens again and again throughout the Democratic strongholds, which is to be expected since 2006 was a Democratic year anyway, but what about the Republican strongholds?
If there was not a straight ticket vote in 2006, Democrats would have won even more seats.
Hillsborough 18 (Bedford) was the opposite end of the spectrum from Hanover, with Republicans receiving 665 more straight ticket votes than Democrats, but it would have taken another 629 votes for any Democrat to get past the GOP sweep there.
Likewise in with the GOP 7 seat sweep in Belknap 5 (Alton, Barnstead, Belmont and Gilford), where no straight ticket would have netted Democrats 73 votes, but there was a difference of 260 votes between 7th place and 8th place, but that's about it.
There still would have been a recount in Rockingham 11 (East Kingston and Newton), as Mary Allen(r) won the seat by one vote, she only got an extra 16 votes from straight ticketing according to SOS figures.
The GOP sweep in Rockingham 3 (Windham/Salem) would have changed. In that district, Republicans gained 428 votes from straight ticketing, but there were three Democrats who were within that margin.
There were also two Democrats within less than 70 votes in Rockingham 5 (Derry), but Republicans got a bonus 556 votes from straight tickets.
The only district where Democrats would have lost ground is in Hillsborough 14 (Manchester Ward 7), and that was one seat.
Here in Merrimack, we've been a conservative town in the past, but we're becoming a swing town. In '06, there were 18 more Democratic straight tickets than Republican straight tickets believe it or not. I'm not going to weep over losing those 18 votes in exchange for the peace of mind in knowing that in districts like mine, even in bad years, Democrats can win if they work hard.
The partisan enclaves are still there even without the straight ticket, and candidates in those parties will still have an edge, but not an edge so great that people who don't work hard from the opposite parties won't have a chance.
This improves the race on both side, because perhaps the only thing worse than a candidate who doesn't think they can win is a politician who doesn't think they can lose.
Before 2006, we had no data to prove this, but thankfully the Secretary of State's office counted Straight Ticket ballots just in time for them to be rightfully removed, and those in the enclaves would not have seen their margins changed for the most part.
On the Democratic side, the Upper Valley wouldn't be touched. Grafton 9 (Hanover/Lyme), the safest State Rep District in the State for Democrats, had no Republicans run; and Grafton 11 (Lebanon Wards 1-3) would have seen the Democrats lose 863 votes, leaving a margin of 332 votes between the lowest vote getter among the Democrats and the highest vote getter among the Republicans.
In Keene, the same rings true. There still would have been seven Democrats taking the seven seats there, only with the margin of victory between 7th place and 8th place being 413 rather than 1656.
The same thing happens again and again throughout the Democratic strongholds, which is to be expected since 2006 was a Democratic year anyway, but what about the Republican strongholds?
If there was not a straight ticket vote in 2006, Democrats would have won even more seats.
Hillsborough 18 (Bedford) was the opposite end of the spectrum from Hanover, with Republicans receiving 665 more straight ticket votes than Democrats, but it would have taken another 629 votes for any Democrat to get past the GOP sweep there.
Likewise in with the GOP 7 seat sweep in Belknap 5 (Alton, Barnstead, Belmont and Gilford), where no straight ticket would have netted Democrats 73 votes, but there was a difference of 260 votes between 7th place and 8th place, but that's about it.
There still would have been a recount in Rockingham 11 (East Kingston and Newton), as Mary Allen(r) won the seat by one vote, she only got an extra 16 votes from straight ticketing according to SOS figures.
The GOP sweep in Rockingham 3 (Windham/Salem) would have changed. In that district, Republicans gained 428 votes from straight ticketing, but there were three Democrats who were within that margin.
There were also two Democrats within less than 70 votes in Rockingham 5 (Derry), but Republicans got a bonus 556 votes from straight tickets.
The only district where Democrats would have lost ground is in Hillsborough 14 (Manchester Ward 7), and that was one seat.
Here in Merrimack, we've been a conservative town in the past, but we're becoming a swing town. In '06, there were 18 more Democratic straight tickets than Republican straight tickets believe it or not. I'm not going to weep over losing those 18 votes in exchange for the peace of mind in knowing that in districts like mine, even in bad years, Democrats can win if they work hard.
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